by Ron Gregory
ronjgregory@gmail.com
WASHINGTON, DC — Historically, since 1982, the incumbent President’s party has lost 28 seats in the first mid-term election, according to an analysis by the Democrat Congressional Campaign Committee. Officials with the DCCC are counting on what they perceive as low voter approval of Republican President Donald Trump to propel them to historic gains in 2018.
Currently, the GOP controls both houses of the national congress, the House of Representatives and the Senate.
Since 1900, there are three examples of the president’s party gaining seats in the first midterm: 2002 (George W. Bush); 1934 (Franklin Roosevelt); and 1902 (Teddy Roosevelt).
One of the seats Democrats have vowed to fight for is West Virginia’s Second Congressional District, currently represented by Republican Alex Mooney.
Sources inside the beltway say the DCCC looked at the other two West Virginia districts, decided they are locks for the GOP, and decided to target the Second. “Republicans are going to win one and three,” said a source familiar with the DCCC. “Unless, of course, Evan Jenkins (the GOP incumbent) follows through on his threat to run against (Senator) Joe Manchin. Then, with an unknown as the Republican, they might look at that contest again.”
Actually, not only Jenkins but First District Republican David McKinley and Mooney himself have been said to be interested in challenging Manchin in 2018. Other potential GOP opponents for the senior Senator include Attorney General Patrick Morrisey and Morgantown businessman John Raese.
The DCCC says it has added 635,000 new grassroots supporters since January 1. The group raised $3.2 million from them.
Initially, according to the DCCC, their focus will be on 23 House seats that Republicans hold where Democrat Presidential nominee Hillary Clinton defeated Trump; ten seats that Republicans won and Clinton lost by less than four percent; and open seats. In all, 59 seats are currently targeted.
West Virginia’s Second District, which stretches from the Eastern Panhandle nearly to the Ohio River is generally rated as leaning Republican. By that, most politicos have watched the district’s highly-conservative Eastern Panhandle overwhelm the votes of central West Virginia and the Kanawha Valley. For example, Democrat Second District House nominee Mark Hunt defeated Mooney by nearly 10,000 in Kanawha County during the November 2016 general election but still lost overall.
Mooney, who moved from Maryland to the Panhandle to seek the Congressional seat for the first time in 2014, has one of the most conservative voting records in Congress. He is identified with the right wing, Tea Party portion of the GOP and has voted consistently with that faction. Some pollsters question whether Mooney’s record is in-step with district constituents.
“It’s hard to say,” said one observer. “There’s no doubt counties like Berkeley are overwhelmingly conservative. On the other hand, Democrat Bob Wise represented the district and he was very liberal.”
Hunt is said to be considering another run for the office in 2018. Among others mentioned has been Kanawha House of Delegates member Andrew Byrd. Less interest, DC sources say, is being shown in Corey Simpson, who placed second to Hunt in the May 2016 primary.
The DCCC is also targeting one Kentucky House race: the Sixth District where Andrew Barr is the incumbent. In Virginia, they are targeting District Two, currently represented by Scott Taylor; and District Ten where Barbara Comstock is the incumbent.