CORRIDOR CHRONICLE
Gregory’s Web for October 11, 2020
by Ron Gregory
What have we discussed before, class?
Right. It’s amazing and purely coincidental how much better candidates do in polls they pay for themselves or which are done by special interest groups that favor them.
After Democrat gubernatorial candidate Ben Salango celebrated surveys that showed him “within striking distance” of incumbent Republican Governor Jim Justice last week, the independent, realistic West Virginia Poll showed Justice still holding a 19-point lead a month before the election.
I’ve said before that I don’t question anybody’s honesty here. Two polls did undoubtedly find Salango within six and nine points of Justice. But, even there, I wasn’t aware Salango was running to come in a close second. I assumed he expected to win.
Celebrating a six-point deficit is about like jumping for joy at finishing second in a three-person potato sack race.
Few crowds ever chant, “we’re number two!”
The methodology of each poll has much to do with its eventual outcome. Results are subject to the whims of pollsters, even when it comes to “likely” or “historic” voters. One poll may say someone who has voted four out of the past five elections is a likely voter while another sets the criteria at three out of five. That’s just one example.
In the MetroNews West Virginia Poll, Justice led Salango, 53-34 percent.
I’ve been saying here for months that the race is over. Justice’s handling of Covid 19, his daily free publicity via press briefings and other factors have made him unbeatable since at least March.
All internal polling I’ve seen has had the margin at more than 20 points throughout the primary and general election campaigns. It will be about that on November 3.
The only question I see is how disastrous blowouts on both the presidential and gubernatorial levels will be for down ticket Democrats.
The dumbest thing legislative Republicans did when they had sufficient numbers after 80 years of Democrat rule was to eliminate straight ticket voting. If that still existed, there might not be a Democrat winning a contested position this year.
As it is, President Trump’s landslide coupled with the same for Justice is horribly bad news for Democrats. We may arise November 4 with more upsets than ever before, especially in local races.
* * * * * *
I’ve said before that my opinion of West Virginia Poll chief Rex Repass could not be higher. His personal and professional reputations are beyond question.
Unlike at least one of the polls Salango ballyhooed, Repass included all the candidates on the ballot in his survey. Thus, my choice for Governor, Libertarian Erika Kolenich, got five percent while my good friend, the Mountain Party’s Daniel P. Lutz, received two. Six percent were undecided and that’s not enough to make up a 19-point deficit.
Keep in mind Republicans didn’t do well up and down the ticket in 2004 when Democrat Joe Manchin defeated the GOP gubernatorial candidate, Monty Warner, by landslide proportions. It may be far worse this time to be a Democrat running in the Mountain State.
* * * * * *
A poll done by Strategies Unlimited for WV First, a group opposed to Justice, was much closer. It had Salango down by only 46-40%. They apparently ignored that Kolenich is on the ballot (very unscientific). Lutz received five percent.
WMOV 1360 AM and Oregon-based Triton Polling and Research released their poll earlier in the week. It said 48.4% support Justice, 37.6% Salango, 4.1% Kolenich, and 3.7% were for Lutz.
Here’s betting Repass and the West Virginia Poll are more accurate than the other two.
Salango’s campaign has generated little enthusiasm, which is difficult to do during a pandemic for the flashiest of candidates. He’s also failed to raise the kind of money needed to compete with Justice.
* * * * * *
Although Salango isn’t flashy, his rock climbing commercial is quite effective. It’s one of the best to come along in awhile.
* * * * * *
I try to be an optimist but it’s difficult not to be skeptical of Justice’s latest economic development salvation project. We’ve seen announcements of these before with no genuine results.
From the sure-to-save-us-financially ethane cracker plant in Wood County to the ammunitions factory in Kanawha and the $84 billion China Energy project, we have gotten no results.
The China deal was more vague than the recent economic salvation plan although equally difficult to comprehend.
Now, Justice tells us a month before the 2020 election that we’re about to be blessed with a $500 million high speed pod-and-tube transportation center. The system, once complete, could transport people and material at speeds exceeding 600 miles per hour.
It’s safe to say that before Justice’s announcement last week, the average West Virginian had never heard of a pod-and-tube transportation center. Hell, most ABOVE average West Virginians never heard of one either. And I’m not sure how many are anxious to be whisked away at 600 mph.
Virgin Hyperloop officials said they will locate on about 800 acres of land in Tucker and Grant counties. Seeing the officials themselves make the announcement is better than the China deal, where the administration has steadfastly even refused to provide a copy of the memorandum of understanding.
“Today is a fantastic day for the state of West Virginia, and I’d like to be the first to officially welcome the folks from Virgin Hyperloop to their new home,” the Governor proclaimed.
In this plan that seems as futuristic as “The Jettisons,” pods will allegedly be able to transport people and cargo from Charleston to Charlotte in a half-hour or less.
The state’s congressional delegation worked to lure the company here, so perhaps we don’t have to just accept Justice’s smiling assurances. But a lot of important folks showed up when they cut the ribbon for the ammunitions plant at Belle too.
With both Justice and his sworn enemy, Democrat U.S. Senator Joe Manchin, pitching Virgin Hyperloop, we’ll cross our fingers that the results are different this time.
Work should start next year, officials said. But Justice will already have his new four-year term by then.
West Virginia University’s Bureau of Business and Economic Research predicts the total economic impact of the center’s ongoing operation on the West Virginia economy will be $48 million annually. Quite a plus if it happens.
* * * * * *
If I had been into forecasts, I would have predicted that Cabell County Republican Delegate John Mandt Jr.’s resignation would quickly be regretted.
I continue to believe Mandt is a good man with flaws just like the rest of us. Being impulsive is one of those. Saying outrageous things is another.
After the Huntington paper ran a story about alleged social media postings by Mandt that were not appropriate for the Daughters of the American Revolution’s annual Prayer Breakfast, he at first said he was hacked and didn’t write them. Then he said they were taken out of context (how one takes a comment that a fellow legislator is a vulgar slang word for homosexual out of context is beyond me). Eventually, he apologized and said he wrote “some” of them.
Mandt answered all of the media’s questions too quickly without giving sufficient thought to what he was saying. All the while, he was also working out his resignation from his 16th District seat with Speaker Roger Hanshaw. He should have taken time out for reflection.
By Monday, he regretted having resigned Saturday. That same Saturday he had also said he was withdrawing as a candidate for re-election.
Except he couldn’t withdraw because the deadline for withdrawal had already passed and the ballots were printed. Some had even early voted before the newspaper story appeared.
So Monday, he announced he would leave his future to the “will of the voters.” If they elect him to a new term on November 3, he’ll be there and take his oath.
He also told me he’d accept appointment to complete the unexpired term he just resigned from if Justice chose to appoint him. Not since Jesus has a resurrection happened so quickly.
Mandt was one of three delegates serving the 16th District. He absolutely has a shot at being one of those elected in November. My sources say Justice will not appoint him, however. A second GOP candidate, Mark Bates, is likely to get that three-month spot.
In seeking re-election, Mandt needs to consistently ask forgiveness from voters and those he has offended if he is to stand any chance. A huge dose of humility is called for here.
Confession, I’ve heard, is good for the soul.
* * * * * *
With all the confusion, it’s tough for even me to figure out endorsements in District 16. One candidate, incumbent Republican Daniel Linville, stands out as a real servant of the people, however.
So we definitely support Linville. We’ll figure the other two seats out shortly.
* * * * * *
As the election draws closer, misleading attack campaigns are being run by some.
The left wing political action committee, Mountain State Values, has targeted several Republican legislative candidates for defeat.
The group has spent more than a million dollars recently against conservatives.
The leftist organization makes some common sense by attacking the Republicans for pledging to oppose all tax increases and then voting to raise various fees charged by the state astronomically.
While I’ve pointed out the hypocrisy of Republicans who did that, it’s logical to figure that Mountain State Values supports candidates who would actually raise taxes themselves. The hypocrisy is overwhelming in advocating for tax-and-spend Democrats.
The chairwoman of Mountain State Values is Lou Ann Johnson, and the committee’s treasurer is former Democrat Delegate Nancy Guthrie. She was one of the most liberal legislators to ever represent Kanawha County. Johnson is a former staffer for U.S Senator Jay Rockefeller and ex-Secretary of State Natalie Tennant, another outspoken liberal.
The organization is poised to spend a half-million dollars opposing former Senator Robert Karnes in District 11. There, the group claims Karnes tried to raise taxes but it is his opponent, Democrat former Delegate Denise Campbell, who is the tax-happy liberal in the race.
Others that have been targeted by Mountain State Values include Senator Ryan Weld ($143,726.88), Senator Mike Maroney ($150,299.26), Kathie Crouse ($138,300.93), Jack Woodrum ($42,667.61), Patrick Martin ($109,670.27), Senator Patricia Rucker ($141,393.87), and Delegate Eric Nelson ($135,148.53). Naturally, they are all Republicans.
* * * * * *
Meanwhile in Cabell County, the Huntington City Council Candidates Alliance still has filed no paperwork. While social media posts indicate one candidate picked up the expenses for their sparsely-attended meet and greet, that will not cure the legal requirements to state who paid for ads promoting the event to begin with.
* * * * * *
And … participation ribbons continue to be delivered in Huntington, greatly upsetting some politicians and would-be politicos.
* * * * * *
Concluding our peek at House races statewide, District 65 is represented by Democrat Sammi Brown. We’ve endorsed the re-election of this hard-working “Mountain Momma” and expect her to defeat Republican Wayne Clark.
In 66, GOP incumbent Paul Espinosa is heavily favored for re-election over Democrat Storme Frame.
And finally (gasp) Democrat incumbent John Doyle should hold on to his seat in District 67. His Republican opponent is Elliot Simon.
Contact Ron Gregory at 304-533-5185 or ronjgregory@gmail.com. Hear his political commentary each Monday at 7:05 a.m. on the Tom Roten Morning Show on NewsRadio 800, WVHU, Huntington.